By Ivan Kesic

Tensions are escalating dramatically in the Western hemisphere amid US President Donald Trump’s military buildup in the Caribbean and sabre-rattling against the Venezuelan government led by Nicolas Maduro.

The Trump administration has radically pivoted from a policy of sanctions and diplomatic pressure to one of overt military confrontation, framing its actions under the banner of a "war on drugs."

This strategic shift has been heavily influenced by hawkish figures within the administration, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who have been advocating for a more belligerent approach that sidelines pragmatic considerations like the oil deals previously negotiated.

The US government has made serious but unsubstantiated accusations against President Maduro, designating him and key military figures as part of the "Cartel de los Soles," a so-called narco-trafficking network, and has even placed a multi-million dollar bounty on Maduro's head.

These provocative actions have been compounded by a series of direct military moves, including the deployment of a significant naval task force to the Caribbean, featuring advanced assets like the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group, F-35 stealth fighters, and a nuclear submarine.

The situation has been further militarized by confirmed US airstrikes on vessels in international waters that Washington alleges are involved in drug smuggling, resulting in dozens of casualties and which United Nations experts have condemned as illegal extrajudicial executions.

This overt military posturing has been matched by confirmed covert actions, with President Trump himself acknowledging CIA operations inside Venezuela, a move that suggests a comprehensive campaign aimed at “regime change” in Caracas.

In response, the Maduro government has mobilized its own defenses, declared hundreds of "battlefronts," and sought to deepen its strategic alliance with Russia, ratifying a new partnership agreement that signals a clear alignment with a major US adversary.

Critics of the US approach argue that the "narco-terrorism" justification is a thin pretext for a wider imperialist project, noting that Venezuela is not a primary transit route for cocaine entering the US and produces no fentanyl, thereby exposing the underlying motivations of securing control over Venezuela's vast oil reserves and enforcing a neoconservative ideology.

The hawkish US policy has drawn significant domestic and international criticism for its potential to trigger a catastrophic humanitarian disaster, displace millions more people, and violate international law without a congressional declaration of war, recklessly prioritizing regime change over regional stability and diplomatic solutions.

What are Venezuela’s military capabilities?

In the face of American threats, Venezuela has vowed to stand firm against any bullying. In his remarks earlier this week, Maduro said the US is “fabricating a new eternal war” against him.

“They are fabricating an extravagant narrative, a vulgar, criminal and totally fake one,” Maduro said in a national broadcast. “Venezuela is a country that does not produce cocaine leaves.”

The South American country possesses a layered and technologically diverse air defense network that would present a formidable challenge to any potential military aggression.

The cornerstone of this defensive shield is the Russian-made S-300VM system, a highly capable long-range surface-to-air missile platform that forms the strategic backbone of the Bolivarian Army's anti-access capabilities.

With an engagement range exceeding 200 kilometers, the S-300VM can threaten a wide array of high-value aerial assets, including fighter aircraft, surveillance planes like the AWACS, and even aerial refueling tankers, forcing US pilots to operate at a significant distance or risk engagement.

This system is complemented at the medium-range tier by the Buk-M2E, a highly mobile and autonomous surface-to-air system that is particularly effective against low-flying aircraft, unmanned drones, and cruise missiles, and its proven combat performance in other theaters underscores its lethal potential.

The Venezuelan military further augments its defenses with numerous upgraded S-125 Pechora-2M systems, which, while based on a legacy Soviet design, have been modernized and mounted on mobile launchers, allowing them to pose a credible threat to aircraft operating at medium altitudes without sophisticated electronic warfare support.

The sheer mobility of these Russian-supplied systems, from the tracked transporters of the S-300VM to the wheeled launchers of the Buk-M2E and Pechora-2M, constitutes one of their greatest strategic assets, enabling them to pop up without warning from concealed positions and making them exceptionally difficult to detect, target, and destroy in a preemptive strike.

This unpredictable deployment pattern creates a pervasive threat environment that would complicate even the most carefully laid US military plans and scenarios, demanding a significant allocation of defense suppression assets.

The defensive depth continues into the lower tiers, where the Venezuelan armed forces deploy a dense array of point-defense weapons, including hundreds of ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft guns for engaging helicopters and low-flying targets, and a vast inventory of advanced man-portable air defense systems like the Russian Igla-S.

With an estimated stockpile of 5,000 Igla-S missiles, Venezuelan forces can generate localized zones of high risk for any aircraft operating at low altitudes, severely complicating close air support and combat search and rescue operations.

The Venezuelan Air Force, though smaller, contributes a potent aerial deterrent with its fleet of 21 Sukhoi Su-30MK2V Flanker fighters, advanced multirole aircraft capable of engaging US forces with beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles like the R-77 and supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles, presenting a credible threat to American naval vessels operating near the coast.

This integrated defensive architecture was recently showcased in major nationwide air defense drills, the largest since 2019, which demonstrated a state of high readiness and a coordinated response to the perceived threat from the USS Gerald R. Ford strike group.

While the Venezuelan command-and-control network may lack the seamless integration of a NATO-standard system, the autonomy and mobility of its key air defense units ensure a resilient and distributed capacity to resist.

The demonstrated effectiveness of even rudimentary air defenses in other wars, such as Yemen's defense campaign against the Saudi-led military coalition, serves as a stark reminder that technologically superior forces can still suffer losses against determined and well-equipped defenders.

Any US air campaign would therefore rely heavily on stealth aircraft and costly standoff munitions, dedicate immense resources to the dangerous mission of suppressing air defenses, and prepare for potential combat losses, ensuring that a military confrontation would be neither swift nor cost-free.

How are Venezuelan strategic calculations?

The deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group to the waters near Venezuela provides the US military with a formidable platform for launching rapid, precision strikes using carrier-based aircraft and Tomahawk cruise missiles from escorting destroyers.

This forward deployment signals a clear and immediate capacity to initiate a significant air campaign aimed at crippling Venezuelan command centers, air defense sites, and critical infrastructure.

The presence of Marine Corps F-35B stealth fighters in Puerto Rico further enhances this capability, offering a penetrating strike and reconnaissance asset designed to operate in contested airspace, though these very aircraft are likely already being tracked by Venezuelan radar as they patrol the coast.

The stated US objective of countering “narcotics trafficking,” however, serves as a strategically misleading and legally contentious justification for a military buildup of this magnitude, one that appears disproportionately large for targeting illicit drug shipments and instead aligns more closely with a strategy of “regime change,” as per experts.

This aggressive posture risks triggering a regional conflagration that could draw in other actors and destabilize neighboring countries like Colombia and Brazil, which would bear the brunt of a new wave of refugees fleeing the violence.

The recent strengthening of military ties between Caracas and Moscow introduces an additional layer of strategic complexity, potentially providing Venezuela with enhanced intelligence sharing, technical support, and diplomatic backing that could complicate US operational planning.

Within the US, the hawkish policy is not universally endorsed, facing criticism from figures who point to the lack of concrete evidence, the absence of congressional authorization, and the haunting echoes of past military quagmires like Iraq.

The Venezuelan military's strategy appears focused not on achieving victory in a prolonged, all-out war with the United States, but on imposing a significant tactical cost during the initial phases of any intervention.

By leveraging its mobile and layered air defenses, Venezuela aims to degrade US air superiority, delay the establishment of a permissive environment for sustained operations, and potentially down American aircraft in the early hours of a conflict.

The goal of such a deterrent posture is to raise the perceived political and human price of an invasion to a level that US policymakers would find unacceptable, thereby preventing an attack through the credible threat of a painful and protracted confrontation.

The ongoing crisis thus represents a dangerous game of brinkmanship, where the motivations for intervention are questioned by many, the defensive capabilities of the target nation are substantial, and the potential for miscalculation on both sides threatens to plunge the region into a devastating conflict with unforeseeable humanitarian and geopolitical consequences.

Press TV’s website