Mehdi Mohammadi
What follows is not the text of a final agreement, but a preliminary analysis of the principles governing political action and the negotiating arena. I emphasize that this is a personal and informal assessment. There is still no written agreement and key differences remain. Six analytical principles:
1️⃣ Lack of agreement and the principle of non-retreat
Contrary to rumors, no agreement has been signed and negotiations are ongoing. In the current geometry, it is the United States that must back down. According to the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, “retreat” has no place in Iran’s dictionary. The exchanged texts are non-binding. If Iran’s principles are not met, no agreement will be formed and an official announcement is subject to the finalization of all details.
2️⃣ Negotiation as a tactic on the battlefield
Do not delude yourself into believing that peace is possible. The atmosphere of full-scale war and the “threshold” situation continue. Even if an agreement is reached, we will witness at most a "tactical ceasefire" lasting several months, not an end to hostilities. The approach of decision-makers is to view the agreement as a "war tool" to buy time, acquire financial resources, and repair internal damage. The goal is to strengthen the position for future confrontations and reduce the grounds for chaos and military strikes by the enemy. There is no peace; this is simply a maneuver in the midst of a continuous war.
3️⃣ Political consensus and complete sovereignty aristocracy
The country is not suffering from disintegration or secret decision-making. Analyzing the underground deal over the Strait of Hormuz or strategic issues is fundamentally ignorant. The mechanism of the system is such that after expert discussions, the final decision is made at the highest level and is communicated to everyone. This strategic aristocracy, especially in military-security issues, guarantees unity of approach.
4️⃣ No repetition of the JCPOA experience
The analysis that the JCPOA is being repeated is rejected for two reasons:
First, today's team is made up of battlefield managers, not believers in peace with the US. They consider the US to be a "devil-like enemy" and renegade, and they are not seeking to normalize relations, but are ready to be martyred.
Second, distrust of the US has changed the format of the negotiations. Unlike in the past, it is not Iran that will take confidence-building measures; it is America that must take confidence-building steps first. Before that, Iran has kept its mouth shut on the nuclear issue.
5️⃣ Implementation crisis and continuing challenges
The agreement is not the end, it is just the beginning of the implementation challenge. The enemy will seek to violate it from the very beginning, but the opposite scenarios have been designed. The Zionist regime, aware of the strategic loss, is looking for new equations in Lebanon. What has changed is the understanding of Iran's power; Iran, which has fought twice, has thwarted military plans, and has the Strait of Hormuz in its grip. Today, Trump is begging for negotiations, but he does not dare to threaten militarily.
6️⃣ Nuclear; Red Line Delayed
The current negotiations are non-nuclear. Until Washington implements unilateral confidence-building commitments, Iran will not enter the nuclear phase. The outcome of the next stages is also open and subject to maintaining the red lines and interests of the regime. If confidence-building measures are not taken, the nuclear file will remain closed.
? Principles governing any possible agreement
(Reverse Confidence-Building Framework)
If an agreement is reached, the basis is the obligation for the enemy to retreat. Iran has drawn up the document of victory in the war with these inviolable principles:
? Cessation of military operations on all fronts with US guarantees; any Israeli attack on the resistance is a violation of the agreement by the White House.
? The Strait of Hormuz will not return to its previous method; traffic is subject to Iran's protocol (entry and exit routes, service fees, and prohibition of carrying threats).
?Complete lifting of the blockade and return of port traffic to the pre-war situation.
?Simultaneous release of frozen assets in accounts approved by Tehran.
?Suspension of oil sanctions and free oil exports.
Only by implementing these five steps, Iran may enter nuclear negotiations, and until then, no restrictions have been and will not be imposed. This is a historic shift in power; today we are the ones who determine “confidence-building measures” for the enemy. If the enemy complies, the historic victory of the Iranian nation will have been achieved, and if not, we will stand firm in our positions of power, and the war will continue to strengthen the foundation of the heroic battle.
