Scenario 1 – Optimistic: A Sustainable Ceasefire and Gradual Reconstruction
Likelihood: Low but possible
In this scenario, international and regional pressure pushes the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces toward a practical agreement to stop the fighting. A monitored ceasefire is established, creating space for political dialogue. Humanitarian aid gains easier access to conflict zones, and key regions such as Khartoum and Darfur begin to regain relative stability.
The outcomes include a reduction in displacement, the beginning of reconstruction projects, and the formation of a transitional government. Achieving this scenario depends on sustained external pressure, war fatigue among both parties, and global concern over Sudan’s humanitarian crisis.
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Scenario 2 – Moderate (Realistic): Temporary Lulls in Fighting and a Fragmented State
Likelihood: Moderate and the most probable scenario
In this scenario, the war does not fully end, but the conflict moves through alternating phases of escalation and relative calm. Sudan effectively becomes divided into zones of influence: some controlled by the army, some by the Rapid Support Forces, and others by local or tribal groups. The central government remains weak and fragmented.
The consequences include a prolonged humanitarian crisis, expansion of the informal economy, and reduced national cohesion. This situation resembles the recent experience of Libya. This scenario is most likely because neither side is capable of a decisive victory and because external interests maintain a balance of weakness.
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Scenario 3 – Pessimistic: Structural Collapse and a Path Toward Fragmentation
Likelihood: Moderate to high if the war continues
In this scenario, the conflict intensifies further, and regions such as Darfur and Kordofan may move toward practical self-rule. Local armed groups grow stronger, and the central state effectively collapses.
The results may include the emergence of de facto semi-state regions, a deeper humanitarian catastrophe, increased displacement, and greater regional instability. Factors such as continued foreign support for the warring parties, the breakdown of essential services, and the absence of acceptable political leadership contribute to the likelihood of this scenario.
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Conclusion
The optimistic scenario envisions a ceasefire and gradual reconstruction, though its chances are limited. The moderate scenario — the most realistic — anticipates a fragmented Sudan with ongoing instability. The pessimistic scenario, whose likelihood is increasing, points to the structural collapse of the state and potential fragmentation.
