Possible scenarios and their relative likelihood
Scenario 1: Full return of Maduro (low probability – around 15%)
This scenario would only occur if:
The Venezuelan military remains fully unified and loyal
Russia, China, or other allies provide practical, not just political, support
The United States concludes that the cost of the crisis is too high
The main weakness of this scenario:
The U.S. rarely withdraws completely once pressure has begun
Economic pressure is long-term and exhausting
Even Maduro’s allies prioritize stability over endless confrontation
Outcome:
If Maduro returns, he would likely return weaker, more constrained, and forced to make major concessions.
Scenario 2: Gradual removal of Maduro without state collapse (most likely – around 45%)
This is the scenario the United States generally prefers:
Maduro exits formal power (not necessarily through force)
A transitional government or managed elections are formed
State institutions, the army, and borders remain intact
Limited economic reopening toward the West
Key characteristics:
No sudden revolution
No full military occupation
No large-scale civil war
Outcome:
Venezuela does not become another Syria or Libya
But its political independence is significantly reduced
Foreign policy shifts decisively
This scenario is considered the most “manageable” by the U.S., Europe, and some regional actors.
Scenario 3: Chronic, long-term instability (around 30%)
In this case:
Maduro is neither fully removed nor fully restored
No replacement government fully stabilizes
Protests, sanctions, and economic hardship continue
Comparable cases:
Iraq after 2003
Lebanon in recent years
Outcome:
Ordinary people suffer the most
Emigration increases
The country remains weak but does not disintegrate
Scenario 4: Full collapse or civil war (low probability – around 10%)
This is the worst-case scenario, and current indicators do not strongly support it, because:
The Venezuelan military remains largely cohesive
Society is not deeply fragmented into heavily armed factions
Neighboring countries fear extreme instability
What is likely to happen to Maduro personally?
The most realistic forecast:
He is unlikely to return as a powerful sitting president
He may:
Remain in exile
Retain a symbolic or behind-the-scenes role
Exit politics in exchange for guarantees
Historical pattern:
Not a heroic survival like Fidel Castro
Not a violent downfall like Muammar Gaddafi
More similar to leaders gradually removed from power in Latin America
Venezuela’s future in one sentence
Venezuela will likely:
Remain a unified country
Experience reduced political and economic independence
Need many years to regain stability
Final, very direct conclusion
The United States is not seeking total destruction
It is seeking controllable influence
Maduro is unlikely to return, but removing him will be costly and gradual
The Venezuelan people will bear the heaviest burden
